Monday, November 06, 2006

My midterm predictions


Senate: Democrats will add 6 seats for a total 51 (including 2 independents, Lieberman and Sanders, who will caucus with the Democrats) -- a narrow majority.

House: Democrats will coast to an easy majority here, picking up 24 more seats to make 227 (9 more than they need to form a majority)

State Governor: Democrats will add 7 seats for a total 29, another majority

Toss-up senate races are Tennessee, Missouri, Montana and Virginia:

Tennessee, sadly, will go to the GOP. Democrat Ford was hurt by the GOP's sleazy ad campaign that cast him as a party animal, and Corker's momentum has also been building the last week. It'll be close, but Corker will take it.

Montana will go to the Democrats. Democrat Tester is 2 points ahead of Republican Burns, and Tester is much more favourably viewed by voters.

Missouri will go to Democrat McCaskill. Although they're in a dead heat, McCaskill's been gaining late momentum. Barak Obama visited in her support, and that's helped her. The recounts might go on for days, but McCaskill will prevail.

Virginia is another dead heat that will go to Democrat Webb. Webb is viewed far more favourably than Allen since the voters discovered that Allen, in addition to being a racist, is just kind of a fucking idiot. 30% of Webb voters say they're voting not for Webb as much as they're voting against Allen, and this anti-Allen sentiment will carry the day.

Afterthought - because I'm a malicious bitch:
Of all the Republican losses, none gives me more vicious pleasure than soon to be ex-senator Rick Santorum. Pennsylvania voters have had it with the kind of polarization that sexist, homophobic maniacs like Santorum perpetuate. His democratic opponent, Bob Casey, who's been 10-15 points ahead of Santorum for weeks, will sail to an easy win tomorrow. But alas, with Santorum reduced to a squashed bug on the political windshield, it'll be a little harder to keep Dan Savage's site at the top of the Google algorithm, so I'm getting in as many links to it as I can. Ha!