Friday, November 03, 2006

US Midterms: 3 days to go

Where's the October Surprise? With only 3 full days of campaigning left, is there even enough time to unload an effective bombshell? In 2004 it was 3 days before the election that Osama Bin Laden released a videotape, which undoubtedly helped the republicans stay in power. But at this point people are more likely to respond to such a video by asking "Why the fuck is that guy still running around loose?" So maybe OBL is the last thing the republicans want to see.

The repubs have another problem, a big one. The Evangelical vote, always key to their success, is rapidly disappearing under the weight of one scandal after another. The latest scandal with Ted Haggard is bound to have additional negative impact, with his claim of having a "direct line to the white house" and weekly phone calls with Bush. The hypocrisy is becoming so overwhelming that even the most obtuse religious right voter must be having a hard time justifying "their" party.

According to this poll, evangelicals are indeed drifting away from the republicans. The majority of those polled have even said they're voting democrat this time. And the poll was taken October 27-31, before the Haggard story broke. Without the evangelical vote, the republicans simply can't win.

Things look bad for the republicans, and that's good. But with all this, if they still manage to keep the house and senate then what's long been suspected will be too obvious to deny -- they hack the vote. And if it's come to that, America is screwed.