I think so. Mostly because he's wearing the exact same clothes he was wearing in his last (2004) video. It's just too much of a coincidence: surely after 3 years he'd be wearing something different. Or at least not exactly the same. And double-surely any guy who's appearance-conscious enough to dye his beard would be wearing something different. A different robe, a different shirt, something. And the background -- the same plain matte brownish-coloured background, except the new video has a greener tone. But guess what: so does OBL! Look at him, he looks green. Has the colour been manipulated, resulting in this green tone? Little things, but enough that I don't buy that this video is real.
Now here's some more solid evidence that it might be fake: all the references he made to current events take place during a freeze frame. From the Booman Tribune:
"Osama Bin Laden's widely publicized video address to the American people has a peculiarity that casts serious doubt on its authenticity: the video freezes at about 1 minute and
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