OBL video a fake?

I think so. Mostly because he's wearing the exact same clothes he was wearing in his last (2004) video. It's just too much of a coincidence: surely after 3 years he'd be wearing something different. Or at least not exactly the same. And double-surely any guy who's appearance-conscious enough to dye his beard would be wearing something different. A different robe, a different shirt, something. And the background -- the same plain matte brownish-coloured background, except the new video has a greener tone. But guess what: so does OBL! Look at him, he looks green. Has the colour been manipulated, resulting in this green tone? Little things, but enough that I don't buy that this video is real.

Now here's some more solid evidence that it might be fake: all the references he made to current events take place during a freeze frame. From the Booman Tribune:

"Osama Bin Laden's widely publicized video address to the American people has a peculiarity that casts serious doubt on its authenticity: the video freezes at about 1 minute and 36 58 seconds, and motion only resumes again at 12:30. The video then freezes again at 14:02 remains frozen until the end. All references to current events, such as the 62nd anniversary of the U.S. atomic bombing of Japan, and Sarkozy and Brown being the leaders of France and the UK, respectively, occur when the video is frozen! The words spoken when the video is in motion contain no references to contemporary events and could have been (and likely were) made before the U.S. invasion of Iraq."

Reeeeejected! Now: who really made the video? And why?

No play for Mr. Gray

Things not going well in Iraq, Petraeus Report coming out (or not), and right on schedule... heeeeeeere's Binny!

"DUBAI (Reuters) - The U.S. government was studying a copy of a purported new videotape of al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden on Friday, which an Islamist Web site said it would soon show to mark the sixth anniversary of the September 11 attacks.

U.S. officials said they were analyzing the tape, which the Islamist site said was the first such bin Laden film for nearly three years, to see whether it was new or old.

The Web site, which carries messages from al Qaeda-linked groups, published a still photograph apparently from the video, which showed bin Laden looking more worn than he has in many previously available pictures."

Worn? He looked worn in the pictures coming out of Afghanistan just after the invasion. But in the video released 3 years later, just before the 2004 presidential election, he looked pretty chipper. It's been years now since he was doing the running from cave to cave thing -- having been all but forgotten by those who promised to bring him in dead or alive, he should be pretty relaxed after kicking it at whatever resort for the last few years. In the still photo from the new video, he's looking quite swift indeed with the trimmed beard and the Just For Men™ dye job. Like Zarqawi and his New Balance™ runners, think of it as the testimonial Just For Men™ wishes they'd never gotten. And questionable authenticity of the video notwithstanding, I find it hard to get all spun out of control with fear of a guy who dyes his beard.

REEEEEEjected!