Saturday, August 19, 2006

Statistically-speaking

With all the terrorism hype that's been going on lately, and the prediction from Dick Morris that said hype would bounce George's poll numbers back into the mid-forties, I thought I'd take a look at the Rasmussen numbers for the past couple of weeks. Highlights:

August 5 (before the UK "terrorist plot"): Approve - 40%, Disapprove - 59%

August 11, the day after the UK arrests: Approve - 40%, Disapprove - 58%

Yesterday, after a week of hype: Approve - 41%, Disapprove - 57%

Today: Approve - 41%, Disapprove - 58%

So George's approval rating basically stayed the same; if the Rasmussen numbers were extrapolated into a hypothetical election, he'd be trounced. Even after 10 days of scaring the crap out of everyone.

A survey of 1500 people is an excellent sample size -- when I was in advertising we considered 200-300 to be sufficient. And even considering the standard error margin, it looks hopeful that -- dare I say it? -- people are no longer buying what Bushco is selling.