Monday, November 27, 2006

Georgie's new war

The Iraq experiment in hegemony is officially (at least to everyone except the white house) a Civil War. Any doubt about that little factoid should have been put to rest last week when the escalating sectarian violence culminated in co-ordinated suicide attacks that killed almost 200 Shiites in one day, who in turn got revenge the next day by burning Sunnis alive while Iraqi police officers stood by and watched. Yeah, police officers -- the assholes that are supposed to stand up so the US can "stand down".

Since his midterm election asskicking, Georgie, the same Georgie who was stumping to beat the band on the strength of "staying, fighting and winning in Iraq", has gone strangely mute on the subject. Iraq has clearly outlived its usefulness as a propaganda tool, so fuck it -- Georgie needs a new war, one that'll still look like there's a possibility of winning in 2008. Who could Georgie be thinking about bombing now?

Harvard professor Niall Ferguson called it the Great War of "2007-2011" in an article from early this year which attempted to look back on it from some future time and consider how it could have been prevented. There's no doubt Bush is thinking about it, and if the Iraq war had gone according to PNAC's plan and been over in months instead of spiralling out of control for years, by now it would have been a done deal. But as bad as Iraq is, the prospect of war with Iran is far worse. Saddam was isolated, Iran's Ahmadinejad isn't. Iran has support from as far away as Venezuela, and Russia has already started sending them air defense systems. Like the Iraq misadventure, a war with Iran would also escalate -- not into civil war, but world war.

Rumsfeld's replacement, Robert Gates, favours direct talks, so it's possible that Bush and Cheney might listen to him. But given their track record, I doubt it. And that's just another in a long list of reasons to get them the hell out of the white house (and into the Hague).